The “better future” is supposedly already here

We are ostensibly living in an era with less poverty, better health and life expectancy and more access to human rights and education than ever. The progress in the last 200 years is undeniable and the extensive data by the likes of Max Roses (Our World in Data), Steven Pinker and Hans Rosling is hard to argue against.

In 1820, roughly 90% of the world lived in extreme poverty. By 2015, that number had dropped to below 10%, despite a global population explosion, the absolute number of people living in poverty fell significantly. Health and life expectancy has also improved with global averages more than doubling since 1900 (from 31 years to 73 years). Literacy rates have risen from around 12% in 1820 to around 86% today and more people live in systems approximating a democracy than at any other point in human history.123

Fragility of progress – A recent reversal of human fortune

While the long-term data is undoubtedly upward, the last 5-10 years have seen a reversal or at least a stalling of the progress:

  • Poverty on the rise: The World Bank reported that Covid-19 pushed approximately 100 million more people into poverty
  • Democratic slide: The V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) Institute reported in 2023 that the level of democracy enjoyed by the average global citizen had slid to levels last seen in the mid eighties. Their data-backed claim is that we are in a wave of autocratisation. Furthermore, Freedom House in their Freedom in the World report, claims a decline in freedoms from digital surveillance to the crackdown of civil society which equates to a threat on human rights in many regions.
  • Inequality widening – Although absolute poverty has fallen, relative inequality has increased. This has been extensively written about by Oxfam and Thomas Piketty
  • The Climate Reality: The climate crisis is no longer a future threat but is beginning to have an impact on the quality of life of many today with the less affluent often bearing the brunt of its ravages

The progress made in the last century remains fragile and inequitable and there is still extensive work to be done. We believe that there is so much to be done to ensure social justice for all humans and preservation of our planet.

The anatomy of change

At Southern Hemisphere, we’ve spent the last quarter of a century thinking about change. So, how does change actually happen? What are all the moving parts that need to be in place to ensure meaningful, sustainable transformation?

  1. The first aspect in our belief is Imagination. – This connects back to something that Professor Ian Goldman said in our recent Connected Conversation, for change to happen, people need to have the imagination to envisage a different world and a different future. Without that, no vision for change can be forged.
  2. The second surely has to be Tenacity. We need people who possess not only the skills to enact programmes but the inspiration to continue in the face of countless obstacles.
  3. The third is Momentum and a community of change catalysts. As Mark Abrahams wrote recently in his blog, we need a movement in the area of education, something larger than a single project, a methodology or a solitary hero
  4. The fourth is Support, not only in the form of financial investment into the foundations of change but also in continuous development of both hard and soft skills.

Maths is on our side

Professor Ian Goldman referenced the 3.5% rule in the online dialogue held last month and inspired those of us listening that change often happens through the actions of a committed few.

Erica Chenoweth of Harvard studied over 300 violent and non-violent campaigns between 1900 and 2006, Chenoweth found that no government has survived a challenge from 3.5% of its population participating in sustained, non-violent protest. At these levels the movement is too large for a government to ignore or suppress without a massive defection from the police, military, and civil service who are likely to have family members in that 3.5%. Interestingly, non-violent movements tend to succeed because women, children, and the elderly, as well as those of us who are change catalysts as a profession, can join. This inclusivity enables more people to join, which in turn helps hit that 3.5% threshold faster.

So, gather change catalysts

Let’s get moving, let’s start with imagination and a vision of an even better tomorrow, let’s keep connected and in conversation with each other to support, to learn, to inspire and to motivate

Let’s build momentum and a movement so strong that it is a visible force and let’s make sure that we have the skills and the community to create a world that some wouldn’t dare to imagine possible.

1 https://ourworldindata.org/ (Max Roser)

2 Steven Pinker (Enlightenment Now): 

3 Factfulness Hans Rosling https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness-book/

4 https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world